My father had a peculiar way of analyzing and, thus, predicting political outcomes. He called his method his “arthritis.” It was based, in part, on knowledge, combined with gut-level instincts. It was not a perfect system, but he was far more accurate than not. His most notable arthritic insight was revealed in his front page last-minute column prediction that, despite all polls and conventional wisdom to the contrary, Harry Truman would beat Thomas Dewey for president.