My father had a peculiar way of analyzing and, thus, predicting political outcomes. He called his method his “arthritis.” It was based, in part, on knowledge, combined with gut-level instincts. It was not a perfect system, but he was far more accurate than not. His most notable arthritic insight was revealed in his front page last-minute column prediction that, despite all polls and conventional wisdom to the contrary, Harry Truman would beat Thomas Dewey for president.

I inherited some of that arthritis, which has been right more often than wrong. It led to some seemingly outlandish predictions in this column on Dec. 27, long before huge upsets in the Idaho primaries. At the time I made my predictions, John McCain had been written off for dead. He was carrying his own luggage and flying coach on commercial airlines in his tattered, bankrupt and staff-abandoned campaign. Another Republican candidate was a guy named Mike Huckabee, who in December, was known by almost no one outside of Alabama and was considered by pundits as one of those quirky candidates who was delusional in his aspirations and could be written off as a fringe candidate, barely worth mentioning.

The prediction in this column right after Christmas was that McCain would win the Republican nomination and that Huckabee would be his vice presidential running mate. The number one prediction came true. The number two prediction probably will not come true, but give some credit to the fact that Huckabee would become a substantial national political figure.

How I arrived at those predictions is difficult to explain. It just felt like McCain was the Republican candidate with the most substance and that eventually voters would see that. And I believed that Huckabee’s strong Christian beliefs and charisma would capture the hearts of conservative Republicans.

In that same column, I made two more predictions, and I stand by them today. One was that Hillary Clinton would become the Democratic nominee for president, and Barack Obama would be the vice presidential nominee (even though he has said he would not accept).

Picking Hillary was no great hunch. Everyone was choosing her. But Obama’s prediction was off the charts. Remember, this prediction was made before Obama’s startling upset win in the Iowa caucus elevated him to the front-runner position. Whether or not he becomes the VP, give some credit where it is due. He was a real long shot to make it to the finals, an African-American few thought could win the mostly white early primaries.

My gut tells me that Florida and Michigan will have re-dos of their primaries, their $20 million costs funded probably by some wealthy Democrat.

If that happens, Hillary wins those states big, and along with Pennsylvania’s win, goes to the Denver convention having won all the major states except Obama’s home state of Illinois, plus Missouri, which she lost by a whisker.

Furthermore, Hillary would probably have a lead in the popular vote, though still probably trailing in the delegate vote.

The super delegates would have no choice. They would have to go with the candidate who is the most time-tested, vetted, and most connected to the muckety-mucks at the convention, and who also leads in the popular vote.

The final prediction in that December column was that McCain would win the presidency and I stand by that prediction, despite recent polls to the contrary.

In the end, I believe a majority of Americans, particularly in the key swing states, will vote for the most solid candidate, the one who gives them the greatest overall sense of security and a candidate whose overall judgment has been tested. They also will shun Hillary, who is a polarizing and broadly disliked individual. And it will not hurt McCain that, no matter who comes out as the Democratic nominee for president, it will only happen after an intra-party bloodbath, probably causing many sore losers to stay home, even if Obama gets the second slot.

The details of how we get from here to there are more political guesswork than arthritis. It is just my arthritic feeling that Hillary will somehow get the nomination, and that we will have a President John McCain next January.

(P.S. My genius son, who may or may not have inherited the “arthritis” gene, thinks Obama wins the nomination, but agrees that McCain wins the presidency.)