Join our Mailing List!
Please click the link below to sign up for your community paper mailing list. Stay up to date with all the events going on in your community as well as the latest news.Sign Up Today!
Consumer confidence: Down, down, down
By: Philip Batson, Staff Writer
In the 15 years the County Economic Research Institute has recorded consumer confidence, never has the public’s view of the economy been so grim.
The Johnson County Consumer Confidence Index has fallen six out of the past seven months, December being the rare upturn in outlook. The index hit an all-time low of 96.7 in April. The rating stood at 123.2 in April 2007, with a high of 129.2 recorded in July. The index uses 1985 as the base for 100 on the index and measures confidence as above or below that base year.
“This is a long stretch of decline,” CERI President Doug Davidson said. “It’s not unusual to have one or two months down and then a rebound, but certainly six out of the last seven months is certainly a weakening of consumer confidence locally.”
Davidson said the last time consumer confidence dropped so low in the county came after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The county’s Present Situation Index also dropped by more than two points from 118.9 to 116.3.
“This continued weakening suggests that not only has the feeble level of growth in the first quarter spilled over to the second quarter, but that economic conditions may have slowed even further,” Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a release for the Johnson County Consumer Confidence Survey. “And, not only are lackluster business and job conditions eroding confidence, but rising gasoline prices are undoubtedly heightening concerns.
“Consumers’ inflation expectations continue to rise and this measure now matches the all-time high reached in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The percentage of respondents intending to take a vacation over the next six months has fallen to a 30-year low, another sign of consumers turning more cost-conscious.”
However, Johnson County consumer confidence remains well above the national average of 62.3. CERI surveys 200 random Johnson Countians per month for the consumer survey.
The only uptick in the survey came in the Expectations Index, where consumers gave the first sign of optimism since December. The index changed from 81.9 in March to 82.1 in April. Davidson said this suggests consumers might begin to see a leveling off of the economy’s decline.
“The hope is people are sort of starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel and hope that the economic slowdown will be relatively short-lived,” Davidson said.
“That increase was very marginal, so it’s nothing to get too excited about at this point.”
Davidson said there may be a plateau soon in the decline of consumer confidence.
The survey also showed consumer plans to make major purchases in the next six months are down from last year for automobiles, houses, kitchen appliances, computers, televisions, cellular phones and household furniture.
While Johnson County’s consumer confidence may be down, the county’s unemployment rates are taking a different turn. From February 2007 to February 2008, unemployment in the county has dropped from 4.1 percent to 3.8 percent.
Contact Philip Batson at 385-6065 or philipbatson@sun publications.com.
printable version
e-mail this story
The Johnson County Consumer Confidence Index has fallen six out of the past seven months, December being the rare upturn in outlook. The index hit an all-time low of 96.7 in April. The rating stood at 123.2 in April 2007, with a high of 129.2 recorded in July. The index uses 1985 as the base for 100 on the index and measures confidence as above or below that base year.
“This is a long stretch of decline,” CERI President Doug Davidson said. “It’s not unusual to have one or two months down and then a rebound, but certainly six out of the last seven months is certainly a weakening of consumer confidence locally.”
Davidson said the last time consumer confidence dropped so low in the county came after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. The county’s Present Situation Index also dropped by more than two points from 118.9 to 116.3.
“This continued weakening suggests that not only has the feeble level of growth in the first quarter spilled over to the second quarter, but that economic conditions may have slowed even further,” Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a release for the Johnson County Consumer Confidence Survey. “And, not only are lackluster business and job conditions eroding confidence, but rising gasoline prices are undoubtedly heightening concerns.
“Consumers’ inflation expectations continue to rise and this measure now matches the all-time high reached in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The percentage of respondents intending to take a vacation over the next six months has fallen to a 30-year low, another sign of consumers turning more cost-conscious.”
However, Johnson County consumer confidence remains well above the national average of 62.3. CERI surveys 200 random Johnson Countians per month for the consumer survey.
The only uptick in the survey came in the Expectations Index, where consumers gave the first sign of optimism since December. The index changed from 81.9 in March to 82.1 in April. Davidson said this suggests consumers might begin to see a leveling off of the economy’s decline.
“The hope is people are sort of starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel and hope that the economic slowdown will be relatively short-lived,” Davidson said.
“That increase was very marginal, so it’s nothing to get too excited about at this point.”
Davidson said there may be a plateau soon in the decline of consumer confidence.
The survey also showed consumer plans to make major purchases in the next six months are down from last year for automobiles, houses, kitchen appliances, computers, televisions, cellular phones and household furniture.
While Johnson County’s consumer confidence may be down, the county’s unemployment rates are taking a different turn. From February 2007 to February 2008, unemployment in the county has dropped from 4.1 percent to 3.8 percent.
Contact Philip Batson at 385-6065 or philipbatson@sun publications.com.