Why Moore will pick Obama

Steve Rose, Publisher

Steve Rose, Publisher

Let me make one thing perfectly clear. Our U.S. Congressman Dennis Moore has not divulged to me whom he will support as one of the eight superdelegates from Kansas for the Democratic nomination for president of the United States.

Moore is one of only 75 Democrat Congressmen, all superdelegates, who remain uncommitted to either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

This, despite the fact that Hillary Clinton has called him twice on his cell phone, urging him to vote for her. To my knowledge, Barack Obama has not called.

But I have known Dennis Moore for three decades, and after knowing someone well for that long, I think I can make a near-certain prediction: Dennis will vote for Barack Obama.

There are several reasons for this supposition.

First and foremost, a vast majority of Kansans voted for Obama in the Democrat primary caucus. And although Dennis Moore has said publicly that he thought the caucus process was a travesty, it still is what it is. The popular vote of Kansas and the 3rd District went for Obama. To go against that outcome would be very, very unlike anything Dennis Moore has ever done and likely will ever do.

To override the people’s wishes, Congressman Moore would have to have a compelling reason that would trump all other considerations. He almost has those reasons, given the implosion of the Obama candidacy over the outrageous remarks of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. But that is not enough for Dennis Moore to abandon ship. Yes, surely it has given Dennis pause for thought, but not enough to overturn the will of his constituents.

Why not?

There are other considerations which lead me to conclude that Dennis Moore will support Barack Obama.

Obama has attracted huge numbers of Democrats who have not been registered to vote. The youth and the African-American community have registered in extraordinary numbers, because of Obama. We see those increased numbers right here in Johnson County.

Democrat registration rolls have risen by 4,000 since the Democratic caucus, while Republican registration rolls declined by 1,000.

And that phenomenon is also happening in Lawrence, which includes the University of Kansas and its thousands of students; and it also is happening within the large African-American community in Wyandotte County. Moore’s district includes all of Johnson, all of Wyandotte, and the university part of Douglas County, where Lawrence is located.

Were Obama not to receive the nomination, it is almost certain the throngs of young supporters and the monolithic movement of the African-American community would be snuffed out. And if these voters were to stay home, it would result in fewer votes for Dennis Moore in his quest for re-election to his sixth term against Republican Nick Jordan.

A vote for Hillary Clinton by Dennis Moore would be viewed as treason. He would stir up anger in his ranks, and that would be costly, even if Obama won the nomination.

In contrast, Dennis Moore has nothing to lose by casting his superdelegate vote for Barack Obama. Moore can merely state he is following the wishes of his district.

The last thing Dennis Moore or any other Democrat wants is a floor fight at the August convention, where superdelegates officially make their choices. But I do not think it will come to that. Not even the self-destructive Democrats will allow themselves to commit suicide. Dennis Moore, along with all other superdelegates, I believe, will cast their unofficial votes before the end of June.