Four metro cities at high torndado risk

By: Holly Kramer, Staff writer

Tornado warnings are fairly common in the Kansas City metro this time of year, but just how likely is it for a tornado to strike here?

According to Vor-Tek LLC, a tornado risk assessment company based in Huntsville, Ala., Overland Park ranks sixth in a list of the 20 most tornado-prone cities during May. Kansas City ranks 12th.

Vor-Tek owner Frank Tatom said the company uses data from the National Weather Service and seismic detection to rank the most tornado-prone cities.

“The basic idea is not a matter of how many tornadoes strike, it’s their size and their number that’s important,” Tatom said. “We take the size of each tornado and the land that it disturbs. We draw a circle, about a 20-mile radius, around Overland Park. Then we take the total number of events and the length and width of each tornado track.”

Tatom said the Site Assessment of Tornado Threat software the company developed uses that information to develop a list of tornado-prone sites.

“Essentially, you come out with a fraction,” Tatom said. “This is all probability and statistics.”

The survey only takes into account cities with populations over 100,000.

Nick Crossley, Johnson County interim director for emergency management and homeland security, said although Johnson County has seen tornadic activity, there has not been a tornado here in the past 13 years.

“According to my data, there hasn’t been a tornado recorded since 1995,” Crossley said. “I think it’s been proven over and over again that you can’t predict tornadoes.”

According to National Weather Service data, there have been 27 tornadoes in Johnson County since 1952.

“The active season here is from May to June,” Crossley said. “The likelihood is always there. In 2003, tornadoes were mostly in Wyandotte and Leavenworth (counties). People in Johnson County have just been fortunate the last several years.”

Since the threat of severe weather and tornadoes is real, Crossley said every family should own a weather radio.

“We encourage all citizens to purchase a NOAA weather radio,” Crossley said. “The outdoor warning is for outdoors. Just be aware of the weather. We also encourage families to have a family preparedness plan.”

KMBC-TV Channel 9 meteorologist Bryan Busby said Vor-Tek’s survey may be accurate.

“I’ve seen a list like this and it doesn’t surprise me,” Busby said. “On average, the state of Kansas ranks third in tornado activity in the United States. Kansas gets more of the stronger tornados.”

Busby said Kansas’ tornado activity boils down to one thing: location.

“We are between two mountain ranges, the Appalachian and the Rockies. Also there is the meeting between the cold air that comes in from Canada and the dry air that comes from Mexico.”

For details about weather radios and severe weather preparation, go to www.preparemetrokc.org.

Contact Holly Kramer at (913) 385-6068 or holly kramer@sunpublications.com